The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) offers manufacturing employers two different signals for September 2026: estimated job openings increased, while hires declined from August. The preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates put manufacturing openings at 584,000, up from 530,000 in August, while hires fell to 313,000 from 347,000.
That difference is useful context for employers reviewing their own hiring plans. It does not prove that manufacturers face a labor shortage, that a specific occupation is difficult to fill, or that every open role is attracting too few qualified applicants. BLS data is an industry-level estimate. Each employer still needs to examine its role requirements, location, recruiting activity, and decision process.
What changed in the September estimates?
| Manufacturing measure | August 2026 | September 2026 (preliminary) | Month-to-month change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job openings | 530,000 | 584,000 | +54,000 |
| Job openings rate | 4.0% | 4.4% | +0.4 percentage points |
| Hires | 347,000 | 313,000 | −34,000 |
| Hires rate | 2.7% | 2.5% | −0.2 percentage points |
Source: BLS, JOLTS September 2026 release, Table A. Levels are seasonally adjusted; September estimates are preliminary. BLS revised its August estimates in the November release.
The broad national totals were little changed: BLS reported 7.5 million job openings and 5.4 million hires across the nonfarm economy in September. The manufacturing figures moved differently from those headline totals, which is one reason employers should look at relevant industries and occupations instead of relying on a single national number. For the prior month, see NSG’s August 2026 manufacturing hiring brief.
A separate BLS report found that manufacturing employment was little changed in September, increasing by 9,000. Employment was 72,000 above its recent low in December 2025. Plastics and rubber products manufacturing and machinery manufacturing each added 5,000 jobs during September. Those employment estimates describe payroll change; they do not identify employer vacancies or hiring plans. See the September Employment Situation release.
Openings and hires measure different things
JOLTS job openings are positions that were open on the last business day of the month and met BLS criteria, including active recruiting and the ability for a worker to start within 30 days. Hires count additions to payroll throughout the entire month. The two figures are not a matched count of candidates, offers, or vacancies that remained unfilled.
A higher openings estimate alongside fewer hires therefore does not explain why the two measures moved in different directions. The data does not show whether employers changed their plans, which roles were open, how quickly they made decisions, or whether candidates declined offers. September’s figures are also preliminary and can be revised as additional reports arrive.
For employers, the practical question is not whether a national estimate proves a shortage. It is whether current searches are tied to approved, clearly scoped business needs—and whether the hiring process is moving candidates to a timely decision.
Four checks for an employer’s own hiring plan
1. Separate approved openings from forecast needs
List roles that are authorized and actively being recruited separately from positions that may be needed after a project, shift, or production decision. A projected workforce need is useful for planning, but it is not the same as a current opening. For roles that are not yet approved, identify the business decision and date that would trigger the search.
2. Define the work and required experience
For each authorized search, specify the product, process, equipment, location, schedule, reporting relationship, and decisions the person will own. Separate requirements needed on day one from experience that can be learned after hire. Avoid adding qualifications simply because a role is difficult to fill; confirm which ones are necessary to do the work.
3. Review the recruiting process before changing the profile
Track where candidates pause or leave the process: time to review applications, interview scheduling, feedback, approval, compensation decisions, and offers. If qualified candidates are waiting for decisions, changing the job requirements may not address the main delay. Review the evidence from the specific search before choosing a response.
4. Evaluate the local market and role separately
National manufacturing estimates combine different industries, occupations, regions, and employers. A plant’s conditions depend on its location, shift, pay range, product mix, required credentials, and competition for the specific skills it needs. Use local and role-specific evidence alongside national data, and state its limitations when comparing results.
Use the data as context, then act on the search in front of you
September’s JOLTS estimates show manufacturing openings rising while hires fell from August. The BLS Employment Situation report shows manufacturing payroll employment little changed during the month. Together, these measures provide context for employer planning, but they do not identify a universal cause or prescribe one recruiting response.
The most useful next step is to examine approved roles one by one: what work needs to be done, what evidence a successful candidate must show, who owns each hiring decision, and how quickly the employer can move from interview to offer. National data can frame the discussion; the employer’s own requirements and recruiting results should guide the search.
National Search Group supports employers with permanent placement through contingency search, retained and executive search, and the Recruiting Subscription Service. Learn more about our manufacturing recruiting expertise, or discuss a manufacturing hiring need with NSG.
Sources and data notes
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, September 2026, published November 3, 2026. Manufacturing levels and rates in the article are seasonally adjusted; September values are preliminary. BLS revised August values in this release.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation, September 2026, published October 2, 2026.
- The BLS series are industry-level estimates. They do not establish NSG client demand, current openings at an individual employer, or occupation-specific hiring difficulty.
